MMT Daily Update — March 29th

Premarket Analysis (Delayed)

By Logan D. Guest, MMT Founder

Futures have pushed higher to just under 4600. With that we look for a lower volatility day, in line with yesterday's session (SpotGamma estimates 0.6% open/close range) meaning another tricky day for trading is likely.

Resistance shows at 4600 & 4616 (SPY 460), support is at 4550 then 4520. This is mainly identified by the SPY call wall of open interest at the 460 strike. This suggests that the market is being supported by higher strike interest.

If the call wall can hold at 460 strike in terms of open interest then we can safely assume any close above that is an overbought market and we should be cautious of a pullback in prices.

That being said, for this rally to safely continue we want to see the call wall roll up to higher strikes which would indicate calls are filling in at strikes overhead.

Volatility crush occurred yesterday, with the VIX breaking back below 20 for the first time since mid-January. Along with that we are seeing risk-on appetite starting to look similar to that of last year, with huge 5 day rallies in names like GME (+94%), AMC(+83%), & TSLA(+17%).

It should be dually noted that this market optimism is coming in tandem with a flattening of the treasury yield curve which is one of the strongest indicators of recession.

The bond market is where we need to be paying close attention for any forewarning of further correction in equity markets and a recession in the US economy.

Earnings News & Ratings Changes:

• Jefferies (JEF) beats by $0.34, beats on revs
• IGM Biosciences (IGMS) beats by $0.04
• AEye (LIDR) reports Q4 results, guides 2022 revs below consensus
• Dave & Buster’s (PLAY 40.80, -2.32): -5.4% after missing revenue estimates.
• CVS, ETSY, and PINS downgraded. No notable upgrades.

Premarket Gaps:

Gapping up:

• IGMS +37.9%, EVTL +11%, DNA +8%, BHLB +4.9%, HBM +4%, ATER +3.9%, NVO +2.8%, STNG +2.5%, FDX +2.2%, BCS +1.9%, AZN +1.4%, BYD +1.3%, FITB +0.9%, HBP +0.7%, CWK +0.6%

Gapping down:

• NEO -27.2%, AVAH -21.2%, ZEV -9.7%, SKYH9.5%, PLAY -7.2%, LIDR -7.1%, CGEM -5%, NBIX3.8%, SWX -2.6%, RJF -1.2%, BLL -1%, AMBA0.7%

Corporate News & Political Events:

• FedEx (FDX 234.75, +4.70): +2.0% after announcing that Frederick Smith, Chairman and CEO, will become Executive Chairman, and COO Raj Subramaniam will be promoted to CEO on June 1.
• Ukraine pushes back Russian forces away from Kyiv, according to the New York Times
• Ukraine is hoping peace talks that start today will lead to ceasefire, but US officials are not confident Russia wants to end war, according to Reuters
• Shanghai increases lockdown restrictions, which means people will only be allowed to leave home for a COVID-19 test. They will not be allowed to go outside even to walk their dog, according to Bloomberg

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Disclaimer: This is not financial advice or recommendation for any investment. The Content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.